기업경기 전망, OECD 반등했는데 한국은 6개월째 미끄럼

한국, 수출 개선세 보여 향후 경기 전망도 반등 예상

수출(CG)

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(서울=연합뉴스) 성서호 기자 = 전체 경제협력개발기구(OECD) 회원국의 기업경기 전망 지표가 지난 6월 신종 코로나바이러스 감염증(코로나19) 확산 이후 처음으로 반등했다.

우리나라 기업경기 전망 지표는 올해 들어 6월까지 하락세를 이어갔지만, 수출이 개선되면서 향후 반등할 것으로 점쳐진다.

6일 OECD 기업신뢰지수(BCI) 집계를 보면 올해 6월 현재 한국의 BCI는 96.3으로, 비교 가능한 대상 국가(28곳) 가운데 9번째로 낮았다.

6월 현재 이 지표가 한국보다 낮은 곳은 핀란드(96.2), 포르투갈(95.6), 슬로베니아(95.4), 슬로바키아(94.6), 체코(94.4), 터키(93.4), 아일랜드(92.1), 에스토니아(89.8) 등이다.

BCI는 6개월 뒤 기업경기를 전망한 지표다. 100 이상이면 경기 호전을, 100 미만이면 경기 하강을 의미한다.

한국의 BCI는 지난해 12월 98.5였다가 코로나19 확산이 시작한 올해 1월 98.4로 하락했다. 이후 꾸준히 하향 곡선을 그리며 1월부터 6개월 내리 내림세를 탔다.

반면 OECD 회원국 평균치는 1월부터 이어지던 하락세를 마치고 5월 97.50에서 97.96으로 0.46포인트 상승 반전했다.

한국과는 달리 6개월 뒤의 경기 전망을 긍정적으로 본 기업이 소폭이나마 늘었다는 뜻이다.

다만 한국도 조만간 이 지표가 반등할 듯한 조짐을 보인다.

관세청의 수출입 현황을 보면 7월 수출은 1년 전보다 7.0% 감소한 428억3천100만달러다.

아직은 감소세지만, 월별로 따졌을 때 수출 감소율이 4월(-25.5%) 이후 처음으로 한 자릿수로 낮아졌다.

한국은행이 최근 발표한 기업경기실사지수(BSI)에서도 업황전망 BSI는 5월 50, 6월 53, 7월 55, 8월 59로 차츰 높아지고 있다.

soho@yna.co.kr

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